Stop with the excuses for Sierra Leone

 

At this point, I just don’t understand the infatuation. 

Each year it’s the same thing. Chad Brown enters the Derby trail, with a big, gorgeous, late running colt that wins or runs well in a couple preps, but never capitalize on that potential in the Kentucky Derby or subsequent races. 

In 2022, the racing pundits raved about the gorgeous, beautiful moving Zandon. He was supposedly Chad Brown’s best chance at winning the Kentucky Derby after he trounced his Blue Grass Stakes rivals. That didn’t happen, and in fact, Zandon only managed to win one of his next 10 subsequent starts.

A couple years later, and here we are again. Not the same pony, but the same old tricks. Sierra Leone has seemingly cast a spell on his followers that blinds them to all reason. Like Zandon, he romped in the Blue Grass, but fell short in the Derby, a race that was supposed to give him the best pace set up and all the distance he could ask for. But, oh wait, he had a wide trip and that drifting just cost him. You know… if only he could just run straight… Funny that didn’t stop him in the Blue Grass.

When the entries for the Belmont came out, it was the same thing, only this would be his redemption. He had five weeks rest, the new bit would fix that bad drifting habit, and with the pace likely to be fast, he should have the perfect setup and would “relish” the distance. Apparently betters felt the same way, as he was bet below 2-1, a clear favorite. After flattening out in the stretch, the son of Gun Runner finished 1 ½ lengths back in third. 

You would think that the Belmont would start to bring some realization to people, but nope. Especially with trainer Chad Brown saying that he thought he just may need more time between races. That obviously meant that Sierra Leone was just tired in the Belmont and would route his opponents in the next start… which happened to be the Jim Dandy stakes, seven weeks removed from the Belmont. 

Despite losing his last two starts after receiving the perfect set up, Sierra Leone was the odds on betting choice as they entered the starting gate, going off at 4 to 5. This was despite the fact he was facing the Preakness winner Seize the Grey, and Florida Derby winner Fierceness, who after his Kentucky Derby loss, was due for a win if you subscribe to his win/loss/win pattern. There was also the Ohio Derby winner, Batten Down. But, apparently, this was going to be the race for Sierra Leone. He was primed and ready, and yet again, looked to have a promising pace set up.

Can you guess what happened? Yup. That’s right… he came up just short again. He got that pace to run at, and even got to save some ground as Fierceness drifted out on the far turn, leaving a large gap for him. It was the perfect set up, only for him to fizzle. Don’t you just hate it when that happens? Especially because it was Fierceness who beat him, and eww. Who likes Fierceness?

At this point, I would think people would finally start seeing the light, that Sierra Leone is Zandon 2.0. I said this months ago, but sometimes people just need a little bit more proof before they believe. After three consecutive starts that gave him the perfect setups, only for him to flatten out in the lane, I would think the proof in the pudding would be pretty obvious.

Apparently not.

Somehow people are convinced that come the Travers Stakes, Sierra Leone will trounce his opponents, because he will love the distance and have a great pace setup. Ok… But didn’t we hear this same thing for the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes??? The latter literally coming over the same distance and same track as the Travers Stakes, a race that will also likely feature the two horses that beat him in the Belmont Stakes, plus a few new and very talented faces. 

Look, I’m not saying that Sierra Leone is a bad horse. I’m just saying I don’t understand the hype or infatuation, especially at this point. Half the time he literally causes his own problems, and even in races that he doesn’t, he still winds up falling short. To me, it is obvious. Yes, he can capitalize on fast pace, but like most other closers, if those pace setters don’t come back, his stretch kick is neutralized by the fact he has to use so much starch just to get in striking distance around the far turn. When they reach the stretch, he’s entirely dependent on the leader getting leg weary to the point that he can catch them. 

That worked in the Blue Grass when it was Top Connor and Just a Touch. But, we’ve seen that when he’s against top notch speed that doesn’t come back, like Mindframe, Dornoch, and Fierceness on his good days, Sierra Leone just doesn’t have the juice to get by. 

Despite all this the excuses just keep rolling in. The latest excuse from Chad Brown was that the inside may have been a bit too wet, and maybe that weakened his stretch kick. Yeah, ok, lets go with that. 

I get being a fan of a horse, but most of the time, even fans will admit that they are rooting from their heart rather than using any logical handicapping angle. That isn’t the case with Sierra Leone fans. It’s literally the same thing after every race. He loses, they say, he’ll get them next time because he’ll get that pace and love that distance, ignoring the fact he’s had those things his last three starts. 

You know, doing the same thing over and over, while expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. It might be time to admit that Sierra Leone just isn’t as good as he was hyped to be during the Kentucky Derby trail.

NYRA Needs to Look Deeper

Aqueduct has been the topic of heated discussion in 2015 after he death count rose alarmingly high, at a rate too quick for comfort. However, it is not the just the deaths that have caused the uproar, but their inexplicable nature that has the racing world worried.

The reaction is understandable, 14 deaths in the 27 racing days, since the meet began is far too many. To be exact, that is one death every two days, and nobody can come to a conclusion as to the cause. Some believe it is the track and others believe it is the horses that are being run over the track. Either way, the masses have implored then NYRA for change.

 The NYRA responded to the calls for change with four new policies, they are as follows…. Firstly, any horse that is put on a “poor performance” list will have to work a half mile in 53 seconds or faster, in order to enter future NYRA races. In order to be put on the list, a horse will have to be beaten by a margin of 25 lengths or more. Secondly, race day cards, during the week, will be reduced to eight races. Thirdly, they will raise bottom level maiden claimers from $12,500 to $16,000….And finally, no entries will be taken by those who ran their previous race less than 15 days before.

NYRA considers these changes an “important step toward addressing the troubling situation at Aqueduct.” Yes, this is considered a step in the right direction, but is it enough?

NYRA also has also made other changes, such as breaks in the winter schedule and workout requirements, for those coming off from extended layoffs. These changes, coupled with the four above, could prove helpful over time, but if they don’t? Then what comes next? The one element NYRA is has yet to address is the track.

Aqueduct’s inner track is a natural surface, made of soil, sand to give better drainage, an 8’’ base made of limestone aggregate –topped by a thin half inch, thick clay/sand/silt mix, with the top layer of the track being a sandy loam cushion, nearly 5’’ thick.

Aqueduct originally put in the Limestone base because of its durability. It lacks the violent reactions of other materials, and handles freezing and thawing much better than the clay/silt/sand mix, that is the base of Aqueduct’s main dirt track. However, Limestone aggregate does have its weakness.

Like any type of crushed stone, if the material is too dry, the bonds that hold the packed molecules together, become weak and unstable. That circumstance is far from ideal, when the base of the track needs to be as stable as possible. This can be helped by simply watering the track to the right degree. Watering the track, would help the limestone aggravate bond, stick, and pack together, creating a sturdy base.

Normally, this is not an issue for Aqueduct, as the winter normally produces several feet of snow, which provides natural moisture for the track to soak up. This year, that has not been the case, as there have been only a couple of inches of snow, at the most, during this meet. Now If Aqueduct remembers correctly, there was another spike in breakdowns during the 2011-2012 winter meet, and upon investigation, the only similar factor between the two meets is the lack of snow.

Meet	Snow Fall During Meet	Equine Deaths During Meet
09-10	51.4in	14
10-11	61.9in	17
11-12	4.5in	22
12-13	21.4in	14
13-14	57.4in	10
14-15 (in progress)	1-2in	14  (2 months left in meet)

The snow fall provides the natural moisture to keep the limestone base packed together, providing a stable base making for a safer, more stable surface for the horses to run on. As the chart dictates, very clearly, without the proper amount of moisture, the track becomes unstable, and hazardous to run over.

NYRA has investigated one side of the coin, taking steps to improve safety provided by the horsemen. Now, it is time explore other possibilities; Possibilities that could be as simple as watering the track, to ensure the foundation of the track stays as stable and as safe as possible.

Nothing But A Dream?

She started off her career so promising, announcing herself with a bang, drawing off impressively over the Keeneland synthetics. The nearly white filly, Dancinginherdreams, a daughter of the hot sire Tapit, then was sent to Churchill Downs. In her stakes debut and first time trying the dirt, Dancinginherdreams ran away from her competition yet again. Her, John Ward, raved about her talent and maturity, only adding to the growing speculation that she could perhaps be the next year's Kentucky Oaks winner.

Next year came and Ward entered his promising pupil in the seven furlong Forward Gal where she ran a rapidly closing second to Pomeroy's Pistol. Not the return we all were hoping for, but an encouraging beginning to say the least, especially when considering how well she closed over a track not know for it's kindness towards deep closers. In her next start, the mile Davona Dale, the highly regarded filly ran second again, this time to R Heat Lightning, currently the Oaks favorite. Dancinginherdreams would then leave Gulfstream, bypassing the Gulfstream Oaks in favor of the Ashland Stakes at Keeleland, the sight of her dominating maiden victory.

Even I believe that the Tapit filly would return to her winning ways here. She had an impressive victory over the track and did not have to run over a very speed biased track. I believed she would turn in a big effort, but when Saturday came she turned in the worst finish of her career, finishing a well beaten ninth.

What happened? Has Dancinginherdreams simply not progressed from her promising juvenile form? Was her loss due to the possibility of not liking the track? I know she won at Keeneland, and it was an impressive win, however, that was against maidens not stakes winners. Is it possible that she is a one track horse? Look at Win Willy. Who would've thought he would take down a mighty looking Misremembered. But Oaklawn is his track and he got the pace he was looking for. Win Willy is mediocre at best when racing elsewhere, but at Oaklawn he is a force to be reckoned with. Could it be that elsewhere Dancinginherdreams is simply just good, but she's a Churchill freak?

This was a freaky weekend and with many favorites falling victim to some unorthodox circumstance or another I am willing to toss the Ashland out. It was the only truly bad performance of the consistent filly's career, and I would wager that when she gets back to Churchill she will come alive again to light up the tote board.

One Mo Chance

Show of hands who was surprised when Uncle Mo, for the first time in his short career, came to the top of the stretch and did not kick clear? Who was surprised that in the stretch, not only, was he passed by one horse, but two? Well, as long as we're being honest, I'll say that my jaw hit the floor so hard that I may have knocked some teeth lose.

When Tom Durkin said "The most shocking upset since Secretariat himself" he was not exaggerating. There was shock, then disappointment, then the "what just happened" mode. Did Uncle Mo not handle the track, was he too short, did grabbing his quarter throw him off, or was it a combination of all of things? We can't be sure, but one thing I can say is every horse deserves a second shot, even Uncle Mo.

Uncle Mo did, for once in his career, came staggering down the last sixteenth of a mile, as opposed to his normal bounding. He went right for the lead setting, what looked like average fractions for the day. However, when comparing with the only other nine furlong race within the last couple of days he was moving at a fairly decent clip.

The first quarter and half are normally pretty average when compared to other track, however when looking at the three quarters and mile splits, one notices a huge difference. Where other tracks will run a 1.11 or 1.12, Aqueduct normally sees a 1.12 or 1.13. Mile splits for many tracks will be 1.35 or 1.36, but at Aqueduct you hardly ever see a horse breaking 1.37. In fact not many, over last week were even breaking 1.38. Uncle Mo's fractions over the Aqueduct main course were 23.49, 47.98, 1.12.28, 1.37.26, with his personal final time being around 1.50.13.

Were these fractions blazing, no. However they were solid when put into proper prospective. Mo was also a short horse in need of conditioning, entering the Wood Memorial. He only had two four furlong works coming into the race, off the Timely Writer, one was a 49.45. Before the Timely Writer the longest he worked was 5 furlongs, and he did that twice before running in that spot. One could argue that Uncle Mo was better prepared to go nine furlongs in his first start than he was in the Wood Memorial.

Looking at the replay, it is apparent Uncle Mo had simply run out of gas down the stretch, which can be largely attributed to the lack of work he had prior to the race. It was also reported that Uncle Mo grabbed his left front quarter leaving the gate. Depending on the severity, this could have easily caused Uncle Mo pain when he went to switch to his left lead in the stretch. Normally, Uncle Mo switches leads and displays a turn of foot that leaves his opponents spinning. This time Uncle Mo did not drop his shoulder and level off. Instead it looked like he continued evenly down the lane.

Knowing all of this does Uncle Mo deserve to be tossed to the curb off this one race? I say no. Many people wanted a race that would see him challenged and would give him some conditioning. The Wood did that. He faced adversity and even though he did not win he certainly did not fold, like other top Derby contenders have this year when trouble has come their way. He certainly got the conditioning most were crowing for out of this race, which if coupled with a couple of long fast drills from Pletcher, should have him cranked up and raring to go for the Derby. So, come on people. Yes, the result was disappointing, but everybody and every horse has an off day. Let's give Uncle Mo one more shot.

Weekend Review

Fabulous Fillies

From where I stand it was not the males that took center stage at Gulfstream, when all was said and done, it was the fillies. R Heat Lighting did it again, dazzling her onlookers and crushing her foes, with an even more dominating victory than in her Davona Dale romp. Settling into a nice smooth rhythm, R Heat Lightning, sat third behind a solid pace of 23 flat, and 46.32. After three quarters in a snappy 1.10.97, the daughter of Trippi began to turn on the pressure. Advancing on the outside, R Heat Lightning entered the stretch with daylight between her and her opposition, under only a hand ride, before drawing away at will.

She stopped the clock in 1.49.27, which was a 4/5's of a second faster than Dialed In ran a day later. There is no doubt this filly will enter the Kentucky Oaks as a major favorite. If beaten foes return victorious elsewhere, it should only add to her reputation, before the Oaks.

In the Older Filly/Mare division a new name joins the ranks. Awesome Maria threw her hat into the arena when she stormed to a decisive victory in the Rampart. Among the fallen was Unrivaled Belle, who defeated Rachel Alexandra and won the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic in 2010.

Florida Derby Pros and Cons

After a surprising loss in allowance race, Dialed In put it all back together when he nipped a dead game Shackleford, in the shadow of the wire, to take the Florida Derby. The son of Mineshaft benefited from a solid pace set-up after Shackleford, To Honor and Serve, and Flashpoint all gunned for the lead. Dialed in dropped as many as 14 lengths off the leaders, biding his time.

After the field moved past the 3/8ths pole, Dialed In began to pick up the pace, picking off horses one by one. At the top of the stretch it was still Shackleford to catch, but Dialed In, five lengths out was charging hard. A resolute Shackleford did not make it easy, but in the end Dialed in would not be denied.

The final time was an average 1.50.07. The pros of Dialed In's race are that he is most certainly the real deal. The Flordia Derby showed his gameness and what he could do when he gets an honest pace, which is what he will get when he goes to the Kentucky Derby. However, the Florida Derby was a huge performance for this horse, and could set him up for a bounce come Derby day.

The cons, if you would call them that are, for one, Dialed In is not adjustable. He raced closer up two outings ago, and did not show the same punch he did in the Holly Bull or Florida Derby. Being this way puts him at a huge disadvantage in the Derby. He will risk either getting caught wide or running into traffic. Also note, that while it looked like Dialed In flew home, his final furlong was run in over 13 seconds. R Heat Lighting ran her final furlong in 12.77 under a mild hand ride. So while this race was impressive, and there is no doubt that Dialed In is a very talented colt, some of the cons I saw in this race would keep him out of my top three come Derby day.